25327 Brushby Creek Dr

Stagecoach, TX 77355

$239,990C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built — · Land · Pending · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,318/yr
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $67,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.