3851 Thistlewood Way

Okahumpka, FL 34762

$299,500D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-141/mo
• Annual: $-1,691/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $83,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#901 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leesburg Elementary School (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 822 students, 71% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $300k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.