3851 Thistlewood Way · Okahumpka, FL 34762

$299,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1994 0.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY WOULD MAKE A NICE FAMILY HOME WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO ENJOY ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AMENITIES ARE CONVENIENT AND NEAR BY. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION. TO REPORT ANY CONCERNS WITH A LISTING BROKER/AGENT OR TO REPORT ANY PROPERTY CONDITION OR OTHER CONCERN NEEDING ESCALATION, INCLUDING CONCERNS RELATED TO A PREVIOUSLY SUBMITTED OFFER OR INFORMATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT AN OFFER, PLEASE CALL: AGENT

Key facts

• Split bedroom layout
• Gas stove
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• PRIVATE OVERSIZED LOT
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• EXTRA LARGE COVERED LANAI
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• GAS STOVE
• FARMHOUSE SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#901 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leesburg Elementary School (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 822 students, 71% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $300k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,542 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $41,772
• Equity at exit: $150,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $143,657
• Equity at exit: $244,773

Cash invested: $83,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34762

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,064/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $274,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-56	+0% $-141	+5% $-226	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-227	+0% $-141	+5% $-55	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-65	base $-141	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,875
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3938 Gadwall Pl Leesburg, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,200	$0.95	7d	1	1.34mi
26645 County Road 33 Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	2134	$6,000	$2.81	26d	1	1.36mi
6015 Nightjar Ct Okahumpka, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,495	$1.45	13d	1	1.36mi
3345 Curlew Ave Leesburg, FL	4.0	2.0	2029	$2,100	$1.03	7d	1	1.46mi
3732 Shoveler Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,890	$1.27	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $299,500
3. 2026-01-19
   price $329,900
4. 2026-01-13
   price $330,000
5. 2025-11-24
   listed $345,000 Active
6. 2016-04-18
   soldstatus $75,000 Sold 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   PROPERTY WOULD MAKE A NICE FAMILY HOME WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO ENJOY ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AMENITIES ARE CONVENIENT AND NEAR BY. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION. TO REPORT ANY CONCERNS WITH A LISTING BROKER/AGENT OR TO REPORT ANY PROPERTY CONDITION OR OTHER CONCERN NEEDING ESCALATION, INCLUDING CONCERNS RELATED TO A PREVIOUSLY SUBMITTED OFFER OR INFORMATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT AN OFFER, PLEASE CALL: AGENT

7. 2016-01-08
   status Pending 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   PROPERTY WOULD MAKE A NICE FAMILY HOME WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO ENJOY ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AMENITIES ARE CONVENIENT AND NEAR BY. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION. TO REPORT ANY CONCERNS WITH A LISTING BROKER/AGENT OR TO REPORT ANY PROPERTY CONDITION OR OTHER CONCERN NEEDING ESCALATION, INCLUDING CONCERNS RELATED TO A PREVIOUSLY SUBMITTED OFFER OR INFORMATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT AN OFFER, PLEASE CALL: AGENT

8. 2015-12-20
   price $75,000 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   PROPERTY WOULD MAKE A NICE FAMILY HOME WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO ENJOY ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AMENITIES ARE CONVENIENT AND NEAR BY. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION. TO REPORT ANY CONCERNS WITH A LISTING BROKER/AGENT OR TO REPORT ANY PROPERTY CONDITION OR OTHER CONCERN NEEDING ESCALATION, INCLUDING CONCERNS RELATED TO A PREVIOUSLY SUBMITTED OFFER OR INFORMATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT AN OFFER, PLEASE CALL: AGENT

9. 2015-11-17
   price $99,900 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   PROPERTY WOULD MAKE A NICE FAMILY HOME WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO ENJOY ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AMENITIES ARE CONVENIENT AND NEAR BY. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION. TO REPORT ANY CONCERNS WITH A LISTING BROKER/AGENT OR TO REPORT ANY PROPERTY CONDITION OR OTHER CONCERN NEEDING ESCALATION, INCLUDING CONCERNS RELATED TO A PREVIOUSLY SUBMITTED OFFER OR INFORMATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT AN OFFER, PLEASE CALL: AGENT

10. 2015-09-23
    listed $119,900 Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    PROPERTY WOULD MAKE A NICE FAMILY HOME WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO ENJOY ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AMENITIES ARE CONVENIENT AND NEAR BY. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION. TO REPORT ANY CONCERNS WITH A LISTING BROKER/AGENT OR TO REPORT ANY PROPERTY CONDITION OR OTHER CONCERN NEEDING ESCALATION, INCLUDING CONCERNS RELATED TO A PREVIOUSLY SUBMITTED OFFER OR INFORMATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT AN OFFER, PLEASE CALL: AGENT

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,064 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$422/yr (+$35/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,777
• − Property taxes: −$2,064
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$8,713
• Taxable loss: −$7,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-6/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Okahumpka

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #26781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 580

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 13%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Current HPI: 365.7475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+149.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $299,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-18 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-20 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-17 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-23 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,064 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.