Spruce Plan

Pageland, SC 29728

$225,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 299 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-264/mo
• Annual: $-3,174/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $68,542

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#352 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield 01 (rural): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #55 of 80 in SC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Petersburg Primary (434 students, 100% FRL); New Heights Middle (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #191 of 229 statewide, top 85%, 531 students, 100% FRL); Central High (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #151 of 196 statewide, top 79%, 644 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 145 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Pageland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,807/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.