391 Park St

Bristol, CT 06010

$230,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,139 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,793/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,655/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (22.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $179k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#21 in CT, #1,585 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bristol School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #109 of 153 in CT (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Bristol School (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #418 of 553 statewide, top 76%, 819 students, 65% FRL); Bristol Central High School (math 25% / reading 55%, grade F, #106 of 194 statewide, top 54%, 1,246 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 37% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.