6411 Julia Dr

Milton, FL 32570

$169,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 804 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,879/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $358/mo
• Annual: $4,295/yr
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 804 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. H. Rhodes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 812 students, 79% FRL); Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 36% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $170k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 804 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.