3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,606 sqft ·
Built 1955
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,545/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$205
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$-190/mo
Annual
$-2,280/yr
Cap rate
5.30%
Cash-on-cash
-3.54%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$64,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (14.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (32.8% below list).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
10 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $190k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.3% in Henderson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,545/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 1110% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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