407 S Locust St

Carlinville, IL 62626

$110,000B+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,060 sqft · Built 1850 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,485/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $413/mo
• Annual: $4,954/yr
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.08%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlinville High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #126 of 693 statewide, top 21%, 394 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.5% in Carlinville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.