407 S Locust St · Carlinville, IL 62626

$110,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,060 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1850 0.57 ac lot Est $214k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home might be considered by some to be a one-of-a-kind. It is quite unique as it is literally comprised of two separate homes that were framed and attached to create one larger residence. Step into the front room with solid walnut plank flooring, a cozy and warm fireplace/den with brick flooring. As you progress through the interior, you will find two larger bedrooms, a master bed and 1/2 bath, and a smaller bedroom/office. The central location features a wall of bookshelves and an area for entertaining. The kitchen has a picturesque view of the back yard through a large window to enjoy the morning sunshine; and just off the kitchen is a spacious pantry. There is slightly over 1/2 acre

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Charming fish pool
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• SOLID WALNUT PLANK FLOORING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BRICK FLOORING
• WALL OF BOOKSHELVES
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• CHARMING FISH POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished living area reported (source: other); Basement present (block cellar, dirt floor, partial, unfinished)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway and off-street parking; Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Storm doors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Phone not available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; House with combination foundation; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Entry faces front (front porch entry)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Combination foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Water garden; Back yard with fencing and gate; Gazebo; Asphalt road frontage (city street); Few trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Parquet; Reclaimed wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Cedar closets; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Drapes and window treatments; Insulated and storm windows; Tilt-in windows; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlinville High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #126 of 693 statewide, top 21%, 394 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.08%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 S Locust St	0.00mi	4/1.5	3,060 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$36	99
632 Pine St	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,870 (-6%)	14mo	$280,000	$98	60
511 E 2nd South St	0.60mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,925 (-4%)	7mo	$185,500	$63	50
812 W Main St	0.41mi	4/2.0	3,316 (+8%)	18mo	$170,000	$51	50
238 N High St	0.56mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,260 (+6%)	2mo	$228,000	$70	48
312 N High St	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,816 (-8%)	16mo	$227,900	$81	42
505 E Elm St	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,752 (-10%)	10mo	$170,000	$62	35
421 E Hoehn St	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,700 (-12%)	24mo	$259,000	$96	27
420 N Charles St	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,710 (-11%)	19mo	$229,900	$85	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,491
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $41,341
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62626

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $489	-5% $451	+0% $413	+5% $375	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $354	+0% $413	+5% $471	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $441	base $413	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $4,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlinville CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,617
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5854
• State rank: #168 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carlinville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlinville, IL
• City population: 7,911
• Population (ZIP): 7,911

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.39%
• Current HPI: 180.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $163 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.