10094 E Stone Spring Pl

Tanque Verde, AZ 85749

$560,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,593 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,445/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax + insurance: −$642
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$933
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-811/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $156,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $560k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-811/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $548k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($493k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $444k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#140 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Collier Elementary School (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #271 of 1,109 statewide, top 26%, 115 students, 44% FRL); Magee Middle School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 350 students, 63% FRL); Sabino High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 381 statewide, top 28%, 862 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tucson Unified District (4403) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $412k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.8% in Tanque Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,445/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.