10094 E Stone Spring Pl · Tanque Verde, AZ 85749

$560,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,593 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 179 Days on market

Built 1999 6,316 sqft lot $216/sqft · at area comps Est $587k · at est. ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled within one of Tucson's exclusive 24/7 guarded/gated golf communities, this impeccable home radiates sophistication and comfort. Soaring vaulted ceilings, dramatic archways, and an abundance of natural light create a bright, airy atmosphere throughout the open-concept design. The home features multiple bedroom en-suites, offering ultimate privacy and luxury for family or guests, and an additional room as a bedroom/den/office. Step outside and relax in the backyard oasis with an exposed wood beam patio and a perfectly sized spool flanked by desert landscaping. Last but not least, residents enjoy resort-caliber amenities including security, a sparkling community pool, elegant clubhouse, and access to Arizona National Golf Club.

Key facts

• Backyard oasis
• Elegant clubhouse
• Guard and gated

Tags

• GUARD AND GATED
• BACKYARD OASIS
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAM PATIO
• SPARKLING COMMUNITY POOL
• ELEGANT CLUBHOUSE
• ARIZONA NATIONAL GOLF CLUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-811/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $548k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $444k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.8% in Tanque Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#140 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Collier Elementary School (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #271 of 1,109 statewide, top 26%, 115 students, 44% FRL); Magee Middle School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 350 students, 63% FRL); Sabino High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 381 statewide, top 28%, 862 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tucson Unified District (4403) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,445/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($493k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $412k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $444,489 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $587,093
• List price: $560,000
• Delta: -4.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5362 N Ridge Spring Pl	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,587 (-0%)	4mo	$634,000	$245	80
5334 N Fairway Heights Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	2,391 (-8%)	1mo	$675,000	$282	74
5259 N Fairway Heights Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,371 (-9%)	4mo	$698,000	$294	73
5304 N Spring View Dr	0.40mi	3/3.0	2,809 (+8%)	1mo	$498,000	$177	67
5202 N Spring View Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0	2,374 (-8%)	1mo	$475,000	$200	62
5286 N Spring View Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,367 (-9%)	1mo	$600,000	$253	60
10451 E Plumeria Rd	0.59mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,704 (+4%)	2mo	$1,100,000	$407	58
5331 N Spring Canyon Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,373 (-8%)	3mo	$644,420	$272	58
9760 E Spring Ridge Pl	0.46mi	3/3.5	2,888 (+11%)	1mo	$600,000	$208	57
10030 E Sabino Estates Dr	0.44mi	3/3.0	2,959 (+14%)	3mo	$1,470,000	$497	54
9770 E Spring Hill Pl	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,885 (+11%)	4mo	$490,000	$170	52
9980 E Sabino Estates Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,904 (+12%)	2mo	$1,095,000	$377	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-93,050
• Equity at exit: $83,498

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-78,276
• Equity at exit: $48,419

Cash invested: $156,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85749

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,908/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$933
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,530

Max offer price $548,057

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $91	+0% $-68	+5% $-226	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-243	+0% $-68	+5% $108	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $75	base $-68	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,000
• Closing costs: $16,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5405 N Houghton Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	4.0	3500	$7,400	$2.11	0d	1	0.35mi
4750 N Bonanza Ave Tucson, AZ	4.0	4.0	3300	$3,900	$1.18	0d	1	0.59mi
9431 E Walnut Tree Cir Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1974	$2,700	$1.37	18d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $560,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $560,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $560,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $560,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $560,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-04-11
   price $560,000 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Nestled within one of Tucson's exclusive 24/7 guarded/gated golf communities, this impeccable home radiates sophistication and comfort. Soaring vaulted ceilings, dramatic archways, and an abundance of natural light create a bright, airy atmosphere throughout the open-concept design. The home features multiple bedroom en-suites, offering ultimate privacy and luxury for family or guests, and an additional room as a bedroom/den/office. Step outside and relax in the backyard oasis with an exposed wood beam patio and a perfectly sized spool flanked by desert landscaping. Last but not least, residents enjoy resort-caliber amenities including security, a sparkling community pool, elegant clubhouse, and access to Arizona National Golf Club.

7. 2026-02-04
   price $575,000 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Nestled within one of Tucson's exclusive 24/7 guarded/gated golf communities, this impeccable home radiates sophistication and comfort. Soaring vaulted ceilings, dramatic archways, and an abundance of natural light create a bright, airy atmosphere throughout the open-concept design. The home features multiple bedroom en-suites, offering ultimate privacy and luxury for family or guests, and an additional room as a bedroom/den/office. Step outside and relax in the backyard oasis with an exposed wood beam patio and a perfectly sized spool flanked by desert landscaping. Last but not least, residents enjoy resort-caliber amenities including security, a sparkling community pool, elegant clubhouse, and access to Arizona National Golf Club.

8. 2025-12-07
   listed $640,000 Active 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Nestled within one of Tucson's exclusive 24/7 guarded/gated golf communities, this impeccable home radiates sophistication and comfort. Soaring vaulted ceilings, dramatic archways, and an abundance of natural light create a bright, airy atmosphere throughout the open-concept design. The home features multiple bedroom en-suites, offering ultimate privacy and luxury for family or guests, and an additional room as a bedroom/den/office. Step outside and relax in the backyard oasis with an exposed wood beam patio and a perfectly sized spool flanked by desert landscaping. Last but not least, residents enjoy resort-caliber amenities including security, a sparkling community pool, elegant clubhouse, and access to Arizona National Golf Club.

9. 2017-10-07
   historical
10. 2017-06-28
    price $464,900
11. 2017-04-11
    price $469,000
12. 2017-02-24
    listed $479,000 Active
13. 2010-09-20
    historical
14. 2010-06-25
    listed $469,000
15. 2005-06-29
    soldstatus $412,000
16. 2005-06-28
    soldstatus $412,000
17. 2005-05-17
    listed $418,000
18. 2004-02-12
    soldstatus $319,000
19. 2004-02-11
    soldstatus $319,000
20. 2003-09-09
    listed $319,900
21. 2003-09-09
    historical
22. 2003-01-27
    listed $349,900
23. 2000-01-19
    soldstatus $308,957
24. 1998-12-29
    soldstatus $999,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,908 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,908 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,369
• − Property taxes: −$4,908
• − Insurance: −$2,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,267
• − Management: −$4,267
• − Depreciation: −$16,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,535
• After-tax cash flow: $1,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tanque Verde

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #16884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tanque Verde, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 18,257
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,843
• Household income: $109,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -381.35%
• Current HPI: 248.007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-43.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $560,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $575,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-07 Listed $640,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-10-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2017-06-28 Price Changed $464,900 MLSSAZ
• 2017-04-11 Price Changed $469,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-02-24 Listed $479,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-09-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-06-25 Listed $469,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-06-29 Sold (MLS) $412,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $412,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-17 Listed $418,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $319,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-11 Sold (MLS) $319,000 MLSSAZ
• 2003-09-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-09-09 Listed $319,900 MLSSAZ
• 2003-01-27 Listed $349,900 MLSSAZ
• 2000-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $308,957 Public Records
• 1998-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $999,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,908 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.