2651 Mark N Smith Rd

Deep Run, NC 28525

$139,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,434/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $267/mo
• Annual: $3,203/yr
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pink Hill Elementary (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #806 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Woodington Middle (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #262 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 577 students, 100% FRL); Kinston High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.