2651 Mark N Smith Rd · Deep Run, NC 28525

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1998 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect investment opportunity in the beautiful countryside of Deep Run. This 3 bedroom home with an added office/bonus room sits on a serene half acre. As you walk in the living room opens up to the eat in nook and kitchen. The kitchen has plentiful storage with all of its cabinets. Just over 1400sqft of living space this home has a split floorplan. The primary bedroom is on the left side of the home with its own separate bathroom, that includes a soaking tub and stall shower. The secondary rooms are located on the right side of the home and share a full-size bathroom. Only 11.4 Miles to Kinston. The country is calling you home!

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Metal roof
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• LARGE BACK DECK
• METAL ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM INSTALLED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.44 acres (buyer to verify); Road frontage on city street and state road; paved road surface; Zoning: RA

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel/unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water with water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level / single-story; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Brick veneer, vinyl siding, and frame construction; Metal roof; Permanent foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Has view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pink Hill Elementary (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #806 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Woodington Middle (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #262 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 577 students, 100% FRL); Kinston High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $57,550
• Equity at exit: $88,155

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $155,831
• Equity at exit: $160,045

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28525

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $887/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 635-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2024-08-05
    soldstatus $112,000 Closed 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in the beautiful countryside of Deep Run. This 3 bedroom home with an added office/bonus room sits on a serene half acre. As you walk in the living room opens up to the eat in nook and kitchen. The kitchen has plentiful storage with all of its cabinets. Just over 1400sqft of living space this home has a split floorplan. The primary bedroom is on the left side of the home with its own separate bathroom, that includes a soaking tub and stall shower. The secondary rooms are located on the right side of the home and share a full-size bathroom. Only 11.4 Miles to Kinston. The country is calling you home!

20. 2024-07-16
    status Pending 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in the beautiful countryside of Deep Run. This 3 bedroom home with an added office/bonus room sits on a serene half acre. As you walk in the living room opens up to the eat in nook and kitchen. The kitchen has plentiful storage with all of its cabinets. Just over 1400sqft of living space this home has a split floorplan. The primary bedroom is on the left side of the home with its own separate bathroom, that includes a soaking tub and stall shower. The secondary rooms are located on the right side of the home and share a full-size bathroom. Only 11.4 Miles to Kinston. The country is calling you home!

21. 2024-07-05
    listed $119,900 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in the beautiful countryside of Deep Run. This 3 bedroom home with an added office/bonus room sits on a serene half acre. As you walk in the living room opens up to the eat in nook and kitchen. The kitchen has plentiful storage with all of its cabinets. Just over 1400sqft of living space this home has a split floorplan. The primary bedroom is on the left side of the home with its own separate bathroom, that includes a soaking tub and stall shower. The secondary rooms are located on the right side of the home and share a full-size bathroom. Only 11.4 Miles to Kinston. The country is calling you home!

22. 2011-04-15
    soldstatus $23,750 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This is an as is sale. Ernest money needs to be certified funds or money order payable to Rogers Townsend & Thomas PC. Fifteen day first Freddie Mac Look Initalive ending on April 2.

23. 2011-03-23
    listed $24,500 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This is an as is sale. Ernest money needs to be certified funds or money order payable to Rogers Townsend & Thomas PC. Fifteen day first Freddie Mac Look Initalive ending on April 2.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $887 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$887
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$231
• After-tax cash flow: $2,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Deep Run

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,684

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 10% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.02%
• Current HPI: 214.2322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+512.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $150,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-08-05 Sold (MLS) $112,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-07-16 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2024-07-05 Listed $119,900 Hive MLS
• 2011-04-15 Sold (MLS) $23,750 Hive MLS
• 2011-03-23 Listed $24,500 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $887 · +141.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.