303 Walnut Grove Rd

Arlington Heights, PA 18301

$220,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,965/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-93/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-93/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.7% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chipperfield El Sch (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,040 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 726 students, 56% FRL); Stroudsburg Ms (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 1,056 students, 45% FRL); Stroudsburg Hs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 1,246 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.4%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $220k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.