303 Walnut Grove Rd · Arlington Heights, PA 18301

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · Condo public records

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location. .. Mainenance Free Lifestyle. .. Hardwood Flooring. .. 1st Floor Mbr & Ba. .. All New Appliances. .. Central Air. .. Beautiful Private Deck. .. Convenient To Everything, Floor Plan On File Great Location, Maintenance Free Lifestyle, Hardwood Flooring, 1st Floor Mbr & Ba All New Appliances, Central Air, Beautiful Private Deck

Key facts

• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-93/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.4%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $220k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $196,482 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,706
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $24,459
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18301

• Rents YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,775/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,975

Max offer price $218,629

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $55	+0% $-8	+5% $-70	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-85	+0% $-8	+5% $70	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $48	base $-8	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 E 5th St East Stroudsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,795	$1.89	4d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-08
   historical
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $220,000
3. 2022-04-18
   historical 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Great Location. .. Mainenance Free Lifestyle. .. Hardwood Flooring. .. 1st Floor Mbr & Ba. .. All New Appliances. .. Central Air. .. Beautiful Private Deck. .. Convenient To Everything, Floor Plan On File Great Location, Maintenance Free Lifestyle, Hardwood Flooring, 1st Floor Mbr & Ba All New Appliances, Central Air, Beautiful Private Deck

4. 2012-06-22
   listed $94,900 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Great Location. .. Mainenance Free Lifestyle. .. Hardwood Flooring. .. 1st Floor Mbr & Ba. .. All New Appliances. .. Central Air. .. Beautiful Private Deck. .. Convenient To Everything, Floor Plan On File Great Location, Maintenance Free Lifestyle, Hardwood Flooring, 1st Floor Mbr & Ba All New Appliances, Central Air, Beautiful Private Deck

5. 2010-06-30
   listed $159,900
6. 2004-08-03
   soldstatus $125,000
7. 2004-07-23
   soldstatus $125,000
8. 2004-05-31
   listed $132,000
9. 2001-08-02
   soldstatus $93,000
10. 2001-07-31
    soldstatus $93,000 Closed 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Great Location. .. Mainenance Free Lifestyle. .. Hardwood Flooring. .. 1st Floor Mbr & Ba. .. All New Appliances. .. Central Air. .. Beautiful Private Deck. .. Convenient To Everything, Floor Plan On File Great Location, Maintenance Free Lifestyle, Hardwood Flooring, 1st Floor Mbr & Ba All New Appliances, Central Air, Beautiful Private Deck

11. 2001-07-31
    price $94,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Great Location. .. Mainenance Free Lifestyle. .. Hardwood Flooring. .. 1st Floor Mbr & Ba. .. All New Appliances. .. Central Air. .. Beautiful Private Deck. .. Convenient To Everything, Floor Plan On File Great Location, Maintenance Free Lifestyle, Hardwood Flooring, 1st Floor Mbr & Ba All New Appliances, Central Air, Beautiful Private Deck

12. 2001-07-31
    soldstatus $93,000

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Great Location. .. Mainenance Free Lifestyle. .. Hardwood Flooring. .. 1st Floor Mbr & Ba. .. All New Appliances. .. Central Air. .. Beautiful Private Deck. .. Convenient To Everything, Floor Plan On File Great Location, Maintenance Free Lifestyle, Hardwood Flooring, 1st Floor Mbr & Ba All New Appliances, Central Air, Beautiful Private Deck

13. 2001-06-28
    listed $94,900
14. 1995-12-22
    soldstatus $84,900
15. 1993-09-23
    soldstatus $1,750,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,775 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,775 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,775
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$910
• After-tax cash flow: $817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4222860
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $59,061
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #4747
• State rank: #315 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arlington Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #2815

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington Heights, PA
• County: Monroe County · 59,057 people
• City population: 28,977
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,977
• Household income: $90,522
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.90%
• Current HPI: 154.4762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.44%
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-87.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Delisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-08 Listed $220,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-04-18 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2012-06-22 Listed $94,900 GLVRMLS
• 2010-06-30 Listed $159,900 PMAR
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Sold (MLS) $125,000 PMAR
• 2004-05-31 Listed $132,000 PMAR
• 2001-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-31 Sold (MLS) $93,000 PMAR
• 2001-07-31 Price Changed $94,900 GLVRMLS
• 2001-07-31 Sold (MLS) $93,000 GLVRMLS
• 2001-06-28 Listed $94,900 PMAR
• 1995-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records
• 1993-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,750,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,775 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.