3742 Hermitage Rd

Warsaw, NY 14569

$219,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-391/mo
• Annual: $-4,690/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warsaw Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 376 students, 45% FRL); Warsaw Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 201 students, 53% FRL); Warsaw Senior High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #342 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 229 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $219k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.