3742 Hermitage Rd · Warsaw, NY 14569

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1880 1.21 ac lot $119/sqft · 33% below area Est $326k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Complete remodel in 2005, roof, windows, interior, siding, electric! Found on a lovely 1+ acre lot, mature trees, comfortable front porch, relaxing back deck. Large country kitchen/dining room. 3 good sized bedrooms, two full baths country living at its best.

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Newer roof
• Back deck

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• LOCAL WILDLIFE
• BACK DECK
• NEWER ROOF
• BRAND-NEW PELLET STOVE
• PROPANE HEAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage; Garage (1.5 spaces); Driveway
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electrical; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story building (1 story); Resale property
• Construction: Metal roof; Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Stone foundation; Existing year built
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Agricultural, rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style kitchen; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on second level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Stove (as heating/auxiliary); Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Den; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Natural woodwork; Window treatments; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Water softener (owned); Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $219k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,958 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,341
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -32.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,760
• Equity at exit: $75,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,679
• Equity at exit: $101,540

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14569

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,038/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,995

Max offer price $149,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-267	-5% $-329	+0% $-391	+5% $-453	+10% $-515
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-450	+0% $-391	+5% $-332	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-281	-0.5pp $-335	base $-391	+0.5pp $-448	+1.0pp $-505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    listed $235,000 Active 1404-char remark
18. 2013-10-02
    soldstatus $117,500 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Complete remodel in 2005, roof, windows, interior, siding, electric! Found on a lovely 1+ acre lot, mature trees, comfortable front porch, relaxing back deck. Large country kitchen/dining room. 3 good sized bedrooms, two full baths country living at its best.

19. 2013-10-02
    soldstatus $117,500

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Complete remodel in 2005, roof, windows, interior, siding, electric! Found on a lovely 1+ acre lot, mature trees, comfortable front porch, relaxing back deck. Large country kitchen/dining room. 3 good sized bedrooms, two full baths country living at its best.

20. 2013-05-31
    listed $129,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Complete remodel in 2005, roof, windows, interior, siding, electric! Found on a lovely 1+ acre lot, mature trees, comfortable front porch, relaxing back deck. Large country kitchen/dining room. 3 good sized bedrooms, two full baths country living at its best.

21. 2005-10-21
    soldstatus $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,038 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,038 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,038
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$8,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,075
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629940
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,692
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3718
• State rank: #431 of 590 in NY

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,372

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Current HPI: 263.9109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+86.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $219,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $235,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 2013-10-02 Sold (MLS) $117,500 WNYREIS
• 2013-05-31 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2005-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,038 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.