14208 Lily Orchard Rd

Big Point, MS 39562

$112,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $361/mo
• Annual: $4,335/yr
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.82%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#184 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Central Lower Elementary (576 students, 100% FRL); East Central Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #8 of 179 statewide, top 4%, 600 students, 100% FRL); East Central High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #12 of 197 statewide, top 6%, 787 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.