14208 Lily Orchard Rd · Big Point, MS 39562

$112,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1998 2.00 ac lot Est $124k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2 mobile home located on 2 acres of land! Renovated and move-in ready! Excellent rental for an investor and great opportunity for a new home buyer. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Large soaking tub
• Bonus room
• Single carport

Tags

• GENEROUS 2 ACRE PARCEL
• BONUS ROOM
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATH
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• NEARLY NEW STORAGE OUTBUILDING
• SINGLE CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#184 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Central Lower Elementary (576 students, 100% FRL); East Central Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #8 of 179 statewide, top 4%, 600 students, 100% FRL); East Central High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #12 of 197 statewide, top 6%, 787 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,640 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.82%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,032
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14208 Lily Orchard Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-10%)	0mo	$112,000	$102	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,820
• Equity at exit: $16,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $33,661
• Equity at exit: $9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39562

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-14
   price $112,000
5. 2026-02-19
   listed $114,000 Active
6. 2022-05-12
   soldstatus
7. 2022-05-12
   soldstatus
8. 2022-05-11
   soldstatus Closed 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   3/2 mobile home located on 2 acres of land! Renovated and move-in ready! Excellent rental for an investor and great opportunity for a new home buyer. Priced to sell!

9. 2022-04-27
   status Pending 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   3/2 mobile home located on 2 acres of land! Renovated and move-in ready! Excellent rental for an investor and great opportunity for a new home buyer. Priced to sell!

10. 2022-04-25
    price $67,500 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    3/2 mobile home located on 2 acres of land! Renovated and move-in ready! Excellent rental for an investor and great opportunity for a new home buyer. Priced to sell!

11. 2022-04-13
    listed $69,900 Active 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    3/2 mobile home located on 2 acres of land! Renovated and move-in ready! Excellent rental for an investor and great opportunity for a new home buyer. Priced to sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable income: $2,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$633
• After-tax cash flow: $3,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Big Point

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #17257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,142

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.87%
• Current HPI: 182.2784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+60.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $112,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-19 Listed $114,000 MLSU
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-04-27 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-04-25 Price Changed $67,500 MLSU
• 2022-04-13 Listed $69,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $504 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.