180 Willow St

New Haven, CT 06511

$699,500D+

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,842 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,668
• Tax + insurance: −$1,287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,494
• Net cashflow: $664/mo
• Annual: $7,965/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $195,860

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $221/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $700k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Worthington Hooker School (math 55% / reading 70%, grade B, #134 of 553 statewide, top 24%, 371 students, 25% FRL); Wilbur Cross High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 194 statewide, top 78%, 1,633 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 66% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the New Haven School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 268% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $700k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,113/mo this rent would consume 142% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.