110 Birchwood Dr

Ballwin, MO 63011

$254,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $99/mo
• Annual: $1,191/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $71,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $254k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.