110 Birchwood Dr · Ballwin, MO 63011

$254,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1955 0.46 ac lot $265/sqft · 9% below area Est $279k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, style, and an incredible outdoor space on a spacious 0.46-acre lot in the heart of Ballwin. Step inside to find beautiful hardwood floors, an updated kitchen, and a modernized bathroom, all designed for everyday living and entertaining. The home has been thoughtfully improved with new windows, new vinyl siding, a new water heater, and a new electric panel, giving buyers peace of mind and energy efficiency. The finished basement features new carpet, providing additional living space perfect for a family room, play area, or home office. Outside, enjoy the large fenced backyard, a true highlight of the property. Kids and guests will love the large treehouse and in-ground trampoline, while the generous yard offers plenty of room to relax, play, or entertain. A large driveway provides ample parking and convenience. Located in a great neighborhood close to restaurants, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home combines updates, space, and location in one fantastic package. Don't miss your chance to own this move-in ready Ballwin gem! * * * Offering 2.5% buyer's agent commission * * *

Key facts

• Modernized bathroom
• New water heater
• New electric panel

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MODERNIZED BATHROOM
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ELECTRIC PANEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $254k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,432 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,497
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: -9.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Birchwood Dr	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,020 (+6%)	12mo	$299,900	$294	74
617 Barton Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	14mo	$275,000	$297	72
110 Coral Ter #5	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	928 (-3%)	17mo	$175,000	$189	68
639 Highland Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+4%)	16mo	$334,900	$335	59
108 Hillsdale Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	5mo	$249,900	$270	57
204 Hillsdale Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	4mo	$249,900	$270	56
816 Crestland Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (-4%)	3mo	$255,000	$276	55
442 Radford Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	982 (+2%)	9mo	$289,900	$295	54
241 Dennison Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	13mo	$250,000	$270	54
263 E Skyline Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	991 (+3%)	11mo	$239,000	$241	53
239 E Skyline Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+15%)	2mo	$299,900	$272	51
239 Ramsey Ln	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	13mo	$219,999	$220	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,553
• Equity at exit: $37,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,832
• Equity at exit: $21,961

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63011

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,262/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $254,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$2,302	$1.95	1d	10	0.21mi
500 Seven Trails Dr Ballwin, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,904	$1.63	1d	18	0.74mi
204 Hillsdale Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	43d	1	0.76mi
920 Quail Terrace Ct Ballwin, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,209	$2.15	1d	9	1.32mi
455 Down Hill Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,926	$1.76	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $254,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $254,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $254,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-05-04
   price $255,000
6. 2026-04-27
   price $259,000
7. 2026-04-21
   price $266,000
8. 2026-04-13
   listed $270,000 Active
9. 2026-04-11
   historical
10. 2026-03-17
    listed $254,000 Active 1179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, style, and an incredible outdoor space on a spacious 0.46-acre lot in the heart of Ballwin. Step inside to find beautiful hardwood floors, an updated kitchen, and a modernized bathroom, all designed for everyday living and entertaining. The home has been thoughtfully improved with new windows, new vinyl siding, a new water heater, and a new electric panel, giving buyers peace of mind and energy efficiency. The finished basement features new carpet, providing additional living space perfect for a family room, play area, or home office. Outside, enjoy the large fenced backyard, a true highlight of the property. Kids and guests will love the large treehouse and in-ground trampoline, while the generous yard offers plenty of room to relax, play, or entertain. A large driveway provides ample parking and convenience. Located in a great neighborhood close to restaurants, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home combines updates, space, and location in one fantastic package. Don't miss your chance to own this move-in ready Ballwin gem! * * * Offering 2.5% buyer's agent commission * * *

11. 2009-03-24
    soldstatus
12. 2009-03-24
    soldstatus $118,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,262 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,464 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$2,262
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$3,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$752
• After-tax cash flow: $1,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ballwin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #357

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballwin, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 91,586
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,920
• Household income: $124,454
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.82%
• Current HPI: 234.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+116.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $255,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $259,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $266,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $270,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $254,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2009-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,262 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.