630 Willow Bend Ln

Rock Creek, AL 35023

$108,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $494/mo
• Annual: $5,933/yr
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.62%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $30,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $99 of equity ($747 loan paydown + $-648 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#401 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elementary School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #437 of 627 statewide, top 70%, 397 students, 70% FRL); Hueytown Middle School (math 0% / reading 30%, grade F, #206 of 257 statewide, top 80%, 789 students, 62% FRL); Hueytown High School (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #235 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,210 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.