630 Willow Bend Ln · Rock Creek, AL 35023

$108,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1976 0.35 ac lot $103/sqft · 30% below area Est $166k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAMINATE HARDWOOD IN LIVING ROOM HALL AND ALL BEDROOMS, CERAMIC FLOORS IN BATH, KITCHEN. OUTSIDE HAS A METAL ROOF, BRICK FRONT AND VINYL SIDING ON OTHER THREE SIDES, LARGE DECK OVERLOOKS A LARGE FENCED YARD. STORAGE BUILDING T

Key facts

• Laminate hardwood
• Large deck
• Metal roof

Tags

• LAMINATE HARDWOOD
• CERAMIC FLOORS
• METAL ROOF
• BRICK FRONT
• VINYL SIDING
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#401 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elementary School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #437 of 627 statewide, top 70%, 397 students, 70% FRL); Hueytown Middle School (math 0% / reading 30%, grade F, #206 of 257 statewide, top 80%, 789 students, 62% FRL); Hueytown High School (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #235 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,210 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $99 of equity ($747 loan paydown + $-648 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,280 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.62%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,188
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: -35.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
630 Willow Bend Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+8%)	1mo	$95,000	$84	86
807 Bahia Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-4%)	16mo	$160,000	$158	66
841 Willow Bend Ln	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	15mo	$165,900	$165	66
1536 Old Rock Creek Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+2%)	11mo	$173,000	$161	66
823 Bahia Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-1%)	14mo	$160,000	$154	65
741 Willow Bend Ln	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,173 (+12%)	19mo	$160,000	$136	50
832 Bahia Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+12%)	10mo	$135,000	$115	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.6% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $23,259
• Equity at exit: $28,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $63,430
• Equity at exit: $31,388

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35023

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $838

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $556	-5% $525	+0% $494	+5% $464	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $437	+0% $494	+5% $552	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $522	base $494	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Bahia Ln Bessemer, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,410	$1.28	3d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-16
   price $108,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   LAMINATE HARDWOOD IN LIVING ROOM HALL AND ALL BEDROOMS, CERAMIC FLOORS IN BATH, KITCHEN. OUTSIDE HAS A METAL ROOF, BRICK FRONT AND VINYL SIDING ON OTHER THREE SIDES, LARGE DECK OVERLOOKS A LARGE FENCED YARD. STORAGE BUILDING T

2. 2026-04-10
   price $119,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   LAMINATE HARDWOOD IN LIVING ROOM HALL AND ALL BEDROOMS, CERAMIC FLOORS IN BATH, KITCHEN. OUTSIDE HAS A METAL ROOF, BRICK FRONT AND VINYL SIDING ON OTHER THREE SIDES, LARGE DECK OVERLOOKS A LARGE FENCED YARD. STORAGE BUILDING T

3. 2026-03-20
   price $120,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   LAMINATE HARDWOOD IN LIVING ROOM HALL AND ALL BEDROOMS, CERAMIC FLOORS IN BATH, KITCHEN. OUTSIDE HAS A METAL ROOF, BRICK FRONT AND VINYL SIDING ON OTHER THREE SIDES, LARGE DECK OVERLOOKS A LARGE FENCED YARD. STORAGE BUILDING T

4. 2026-03-10
   price $130,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   LAMINATE HARDWOOD IN LIVING ROOM HALL AND ALL BEDROOMS, CERAMIC FLOORS IN BATH, KITCHEN. OUTSIDE HAS A METAL ROOF, BRICK FRONT AND VINYL SIDING ON OTHER THREE SIDES, LARGE DECK OVERLOOKS A LARGE FENCED YARD. STORAGE BUILDING T

5. 2026-01-27
   listed $135,000 Active 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   LAMINATE HARDWOOD IN LIVING ROOM HALL AND ALL BEDROOMS, CERAMIC FLOORS IN BATH, KITCHEN. OUTSIDE HAS A METAL ROOF, BRICK FRONT AND VINYL SIDING ON OTHER THREE SIDES, LARGE DECK OVERLOOKS A LARGE FENCED YARD. STORAGE BUILDING T

6. 2019-06-19
   soldstatus $92,333
7. 2019-05-24
   soldstatus $92,000 Sold 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   What a great starter home. Large country front porch for just sitting and a large deck out back for grilling. Huge level back yard. House has a metal roof and heat pump under 4 years old. New attic insulation and septic just pumped. INSIDE find laminate hardwood and tile. Great place to start home ownership or a downsizers dream. Out side building to remain

8. 2019-04-12
   historical 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   What a great starter home. Large country front porch for just sitting and a large deck out back for grilling. Huge level back yard. House has a metal roof and heat pump under 4 years old. New attic insulation and septic just pumped. INSIDE find laminate hardwood and tile. Great place to start home ownership or a downsizers dream. Out side building to remain

9. 2019-04-03
   historical Contingent 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   What a great starter home. Large country front porch for just sitting and a large deck out back for grilling. Huge level back yard. House has a metal roof and heat pump under 4 years old. New attic insulation and septic just pumped. INSIDE find laminate hardwood and tile. Great place to start home ownership or a downsizers dream. Out side building to remain

10. 2019-03-30
    listed $90,000 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    What a great starter home. Large country front porch for just sitting and a large deck out back for grilling. Huge level back yard. House has a metal roof and heat pump under 4 years old. New attic insulation and septic just pumped. INSIDE find laminate hardwood and tile. Great place to start home ownership or a downsizers dream. Out side building to remain

11. 2016-03-03
    soldstatus $85,000
12. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus $85,000
13. 2016-02-29
    listed $85,000
14. 2006-11-06
    soldstatus $84,000
15. 2006-11-06
    soldstatus $84,000
16. 1993-05-10
    soldstatus $47,466
17. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $4,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,060
• After-tax cash flow: $4,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Rock Creek

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #22317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rock Creek, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 25,221
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,533
• Household income: $69,863
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 247.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.60%
• Current HPI: 389.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+157.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $108,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $119,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $120,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $130,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $135,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $92,333 Public Records
• 2019-05-24 Sold (MLS) $92,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-04-12 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-04-03 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $90,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-29 Listed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-02-29 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $47,466 Public Records
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.