9004 Shine Dr

Four Corners, FL 34747

$285,000C

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,506 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,161/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$935
• HOA: −$431
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$874
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,118/yr
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $285k).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Westside K-8 School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,722 students, 39% FRL); Celebration High School (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,769 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 1672 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,161/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1754% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.