1601 Sumac Cir Unit A

Carver, MN 55315

$319,000F

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Built 2010 · Condo · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$380
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-479/mo
• Annual: $-5,753/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#409 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Eastern Carver County Public School (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in MN (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.