1601 Sumac Cir Unit A · Carver, MN 55315

$319,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Condo public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2010 $380/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2.5 bath 2 car garage end unit townhouse in carver county. Gas Fireplace recently serviced, New LVP flooring, paint and carpet in 2020, TV above fireplace included, Stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new roof in 2023, new washer and dryer November 2023, shelving in garage can stay or be removed, near the new elementary school, day care and other amenities. 1 yr AHS Home Warranty included!

Key facts

• $380 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2010

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Jonathan Carver Pkwy to Ironwood Dr east to White Pine Way south (right) to Sumac Circle west (right) to home on left. Parking allowed on north side of Sumac for showings.
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Gassen Mgmt; Monthly association fee of $380; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, sewer, snow removal and water; Community amenities include in-ground sprinkler system and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuckunder, insulated garage with storage and garage door opener; Electric in garage; 2-car garage (approx. 23 x 19, 7' door height, 16' door width)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two stories; Primary living spaces on main and upper levels; Pitched asphalt roof (8 years old or newer)
• Construction: Frame construction; Poured concrete foundation; Asphalt, pitched roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Stone and vinyl exterior; Zero lot line; City street frontage on a cul-de-sac with curbs and paved streets; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen / informal dining area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom suite); Bedrooms located on upper level
• Flooring: Tile floors; Natural woodwork (trim/details)
• Bathrooms: Two primary baths; Double sink; Primary bathroom ensuite and private; Upper-level full bath; Main-floor half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Indoor sprinklers; Kitchen window; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Natural woodwork; Tile floors; Walk-in closet; Family room and living room gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and dryer hook-ups; Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup; Electric water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#409 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Eastern Carver County Public School (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in MN (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,309 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-82,043
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-110,018
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55315

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,058/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,089

Max offer price $234,309

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $319,000 Active
4. 2026-05-02
   historical $319,000
5. 2024-01-16
   soldstatus $289,900
6. 2024-01-05
   soldstatus $289,900 Sold 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   3 bedroom 2.5 bath 2 car garage end unit townhouse in carver county. Gas Fireplace recently serviced, New LVP flooring, paint and carpet in 2020, TV above fireplace included, Stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new roof in 2023, new washer and dryer November 2023, shelving in garage can stay or be removed, near the new elementary school, day care and other amenities. 1 yr AHS Home Warranty included!

7. 2023-12-18
   status Pending 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   3 bedroom 2.5 bath 2 car garage end unit townhouse in carver county. Gas Fireplace recently serviced, New LVP flooring, paint and carpet in 2020, TV above fireplace included, Stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new roof in 2023, new washer and dryer November 2023, shelving in garage can stay or be removed, near the new elementary school, day care and other amenities. 1 yr AHS Home Warranty included!

8. 2023-11-20
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   3 bedroom 2.5 bath 2 car garage end unit townhouse in carver county. Gas Fireplace recently serviced, New LVP flooring, paint and carpet in 2020, TV above fireplace included, Stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new roof in 2023, new washer and dryer November 2023, shelving in garage can stay or be removed, near the new elementary school, day care and other amenities. 1 yr AHS Home Warranty included!

9. 2023-11-15
   listed $289,900 Active 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   3 bedroom 2.5 bath 2 car garage end unit townhouse in carver county. Gas Fireplace recently serviced, New LVP flooring, paint and carpet in 2020, TV above fireplace included, Stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new roof in 2023, new washer and dryer November 2023, shelving in garage can stay or be removed, near the new elementary school, day care and other amenities. 1 yr AHS Home Warranty included!

10. 2023-11-10
    historical $289,900 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    3 bedroom 2.5 bath 2 car garage end unit townhouse in carver county. Gas Fireplace recently serviced, New LVP flooring, paint and carpet in 2020, TV above fireplace included, Stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, new roof in 2023, new washer and dryer November 2023, shelving in garage can stay or be removed, near the new elementary school, day care and other amenities. 1 yr AHS Home Warranty included!

11. 2020-03-04
    soldstatus $222,500
12. 2020-02-27
    soldstatus $222,500 Sold 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Sold before list.

13. 2020-02-26
    historical 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Sold before list.

14. 2020-02-25
    listed $222,500 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Sold before list.

15. 2011-06-17
    soldstatus $130,000
16. 2011-05-04
    historical
17. 2011-03-24
    listed $139,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,058 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,315 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$3,058
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,383
• − Management: −$2,383
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$11,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Carver County Public School
• NCES district ID: 2708190
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $87,010
• Composite: 51.68/100
• National rank: #1694
• State rank: #41 of 301 in MN

Livability — Carver

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #9533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carver, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,034

Population outlook (Carver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,077 people
• By 2030: 122,880 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 137,210 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 148,524 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 174,624 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 185,806 · +61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 10% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carver

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.4) · D 46.3% · R 51.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.7pp toward D · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.4 2020: R+4.9 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.17%
• Current HPI: 217.5494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+127.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $319,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $319,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $289,900 Public Records
• 2024-01-05 Sold (MLS) $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-20 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-15 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-10 Coming Soon $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records
• 2020-02-27 Sold (MLS) $222,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-25 Listed $222,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-17 Sold (MLS) $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-24 Listed $139,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,058 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.