21550 Hwy 64 E

Arp, TX 75750

$118,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $406/mo
• Annual: $4,872/yr
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.74%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $33,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#442 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Arp ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arp El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 473 students, 60% FRL); Arp J H (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 219 students, 62% FRL); Arp H S (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 293 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.