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Hopewell, NJ 08534

$549,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,129 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$352
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $-1,148/mo
• Annual: $-13,781/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.95%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $153,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $550k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($542k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $380k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#125 in NJ, #3,403 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bear Tavern Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #422 of 1,303 statewide, top 35%, 459 students, 3% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.5% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.