2401 16th St

San Francisco, CA 94110

$993,775F

None bd · 5.0 ba · 5,832 sqft · Built 1909 · Condo · Coming Soon · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,211
• Tax + insurance: −$3,651
• HOA: −$4,774
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-10,824/mo
• Annual: $-129,889/yr
• Cap rate: -6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -46.68%
• DSCR: -1.08
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $278,257

Investor read

• This is a ?-bed/5.0-bath condo listed at $994k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-130k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (59.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (64.2% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($904k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $356k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; HOA is 134% of rent; built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate -6.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.