2401 16th St · San Francisco, CA 94110

$993,775

None bd · 5.0 ba · 5,832 sqft · Condo public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1909 $170/sqft · 72% below area Est $1454k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing a prime ground floor commercial condo in the heart of San Francisco, this distinguished 2,384 SF condo stands as a testament to timeless architecture, dating back to 1909. Zoned UMU, the property offers a versatile canvas for a range of office and commercial endeavors including retail and food and beverage. Boasting a location in the thriving market of San Francisco, this property presents an exceptional prospect for the astute investor seeking to capitalize on the city's dynamic commercial landscape. With its rich historical significance and prime positioning, this property stands poised to deliver enduring value and potential for the discerning investor. Strategically located

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/5.0-bath condo listed at $994k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-130k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (59.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (64.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -6.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($904k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; HOA is 134% of rent; built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $355,939 (64.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: -6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -46.68%
• DSCR: -1.08
• GRM: 23.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,454,286
• List price: $993,775
• Delta: -31.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200-2202 Bryant St	0.45mi	9/2.0	5,400 (-7%)	11mo	$1,925,000	$356	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.97×
• Total profit: $-827,404
• Equity at exit: $148,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -4.41×
• Total profit: $-1,505,463
• Equity at exit: $85,923

Cash invested: $278,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94110

• Rents YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,211
• Tax from tax record: −$3,236 /mo · $38,838/yr
• Insurance: −$414
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$4,774
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-10,824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,261

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10,262	-5% $-10,543	+0% $-10,824	+5% $-11,105	+10% $-11,387
Rent	-10% $-11,105	-5% $-10,965	+0% $-10,824	+5% $-10,684	+10% $-10,543
Rate	-1.0pp $-10,324	-0.5pp $-10,571	base $-10,824	+0.5pp $-11,082	+1.0pp $-11,344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,444
• Closing costs: $29,813
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Isis St Unit 4 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	5526	$3,200	$0.58	45d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $993,775 Coming Soon 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $38,838 · $3,236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $38,838 · $3,236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,667
• − Property taxes: −$38,838
• − Insurance: −$4,969
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,417
• − Management: −$3,417
• − HOA: −$57,288
• − Depreciation: −$28,910
• Taxable loss: −$149,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$35,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-93,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,865
• Household income: $158,351
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2732.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1385.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2424
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.54%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2014): $38,838 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.