407 30th Pl

Tuscaloosa, AL 35401

$399,000F

None bd · None ba · 3,465 sqft · Built 1970 · Townhouse · Active · 251 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,569/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-1,190/mo
• Annual: $-14,285/yr
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.79%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a townhouse listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (52.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (60.7% below list).
• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (60.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Skyland Elementary School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 385 students, 91% FRL); Northridge High School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #31 of 305 statewide, top 10%, 1,145 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $399k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,569/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 3997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.