407 30th Pl · Tuscaloosa, AL 35401

$399,000

None bd · None ba · 3,465 sqft · Townhouse public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1970 0.44 ac lot $115/sqft · 75% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 250 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a townhouse listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (52.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (60.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (60.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,569/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 3997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $399k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,918 (60.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.79%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 21.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,614,236
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -75.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-135,285
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-192,593
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35401

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 21.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,057/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,076

Max offer price $188,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-965	-5% $-1,077	+0% $-1,190	+5% $-1,303	+10% $-1,416
Rent	-10% $-1,314	-5% $-1,252	+0% $-1,190	+5% $-1,128	+10% $-1,066
Rate	-1.0pp $-989	-0.5pp $-1,089	base $-1,190	+0.5pp $-1,294	+1.0pp $-1,399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 248 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 247 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 246 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 230 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 229 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

19. 2026-04-01
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

20. 2026-03-01
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

21. 2026-02-01
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

22. 2026-01-01
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

23. 2025-09-30
    listed $399,000 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    7 units, each is a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom. 6 of the 7 are leased. 3 of the units are updated and rent for $700 a month. The remaining 4 units have not been updated. Rent rolls are available upon request. The units are conveniently located near downtown Tuscaloosa, just off Greensboro Avenue. The units are currently professionally managed.

24. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $219,840 Closed 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

25. 2024-04-03
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

26. 2024-03-16
    price $250,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

27. 2024-02-26
    status Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

28. 2024-02-22
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

29. 2024-02-03
    price $275,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

30. 2024-01-17
    listed $300,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Good income producing investment property with a steady occupancy rate. Month to month leases, one bedroom-one bath, rent roll and expenses available on request. Brand new roof is scheduled to be installed. Great 1031 investment property with upscale potential. Priced for quick sale. Cash sale. .. no seller financing.

31. 2023-08-30
    status Active
32. 2023-08-11
    historical
33. 2023-06-19
    status Active
34. 2023-06-09
    status Pending
35. 2023-04-11
    status Active
36. 2023-03-30
    status Pending
37. 2023-03-21
    status Active
38. 2023-03-11
    status Pending
39. 2023-02-23
    listed $350,000 Active
40. 2020-11-03
    soldstatus $500,000
41. 2019-09-25
    soldstatus $385,000
42. 2019-09-19
    soldstatus $158,530
43. 2019-05-10
    listed $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,057
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$22,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,326
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa City
• NCES district ID: 0103360
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,474
• Composite: 24.51/100
• National rank: #7647
• State rank: #74 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tuscaloosa, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,459
• Household income: $29,152
• Rent vs Own: 73.0% rent · 27.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3997.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.40%
• Current HPI: 179.8335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.29%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+94.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $399,000 WAMLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $219,840 WAMLS
• 2024-04-03 Pending — WAMLS
• 2024-03-16 Price Changed $250,000 WAMLS
• 2024-02-26 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2024-02-22 Pending — WAMLS
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $275,000 WAMLS
• 2024-01-17 Listed $300,000 WAMLS
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2023-08-11 Delisted — WAMLS
• 2023-06-19 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2023-06-09 Pending — WAMLS
• 2023-04-11 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2023-03-30 Pending — WAMLS
• 2023-03-21 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2023-03-11 Pending — WAMLS
• 2023-02-23 Listed $350,000 WAMLS
• 2020-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-19 Sold (MLS) $158,530 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-10 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,057 · +39.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.