20 Pine Hall Rd

Mathews, VA 23109

$225,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-266/mo
• Annual: $-3,194/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (39.2% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mathews Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Thomas Hunter Middle (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D+, #264 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 283 students, 73% FRL); Mathews High (math 57% / reading 87%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 310 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 34% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.