20 Pine Hall Rd · Mathews, VA 23109

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1938 1.20 ac lot $143/sqft · 27% below area Est $347k · 35% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

Key facts

• Full front porch
• Large kitchen
• Enclosed rear porch

Tags

• FULL FRONT PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY MUD ROOM
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mathews Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Thomas Hunter Middle (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D+, #264 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 283 students, 73% FRL); Mathews High (math 57% / reading 87%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 310 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 34% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,820 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,080
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -35.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10371 Buckley Hall Rd	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-10%)	14mo	$280,000	$197	60
82 Southwind Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	8mo	$310,000	$205	59
212 Cross Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-12%)	18mo	$274,900	$199	44
343 Oakley Pointe Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,723 (+10%)	12mo	$540,000	$313	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,615
• Equity at exit: $84,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $24,257
• Equity at exit: $118,527

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23109

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $177,975

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-203	+0% $-266	+5% $-330	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-320	+0% $-266	+5% $-212	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-209	base $-266	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $225,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,500 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,500 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,500 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,500 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $279,500 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

19. 2026-05-04
    price $279,500 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

20. 2026-04-09
    status Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

21. 2026-04-09
    status Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

22. 2026-03-24
    historical Active Under Contract 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

23. 2026-03-24
    status Pending 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

24. 2026-02-06
    listed $289,900 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

25. 2026-01-22
    historical $289,900 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs and/or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

26. 2026-01-21
    listed $289,900 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Timeless Craftsman Bungalow ideally located close to everything in Mathews, VA. Full front porch for morning coffee or spending time with friends & family with a comfortable, adaptable floor plan making this a perfect 1st home, coastal get-away or downsize home. There's a Living Room, large Kitchen with all appliances, spacious Laundry/Mud Room, first floor Bedroom & 1.5 bathrooms on the main level. Two more bedrooms & 1/2 bath on the 2nd level. Fabulous 1+ acre setting, wood floors, wide baseboards, enclosed rear porch, carport & detached storage shed with electricity. First time buyers, there's grant money available if you qualify to use for closing costs or to buydown your interest rate! Priced under current appraisal offering instant equity. Don't sleep on this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$964/yr (+$80/mo · 109.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 2,525

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Current HPI: 144.0053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $279,500 REINMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $279,500 CBRAR
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — CBRAR
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-02-06 Listed $289,900 CBRAR
• 2026-01-22 Coming Soon $289,900 CBRAR
• 2026-01-21 Listed $289,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.