907 E Lincolnwood Cir

Coolidge, AZ 85194

$262,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,377
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-126/mo
• Annual: $-1,513/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $73,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $262k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.