907 E Lincolnwood Cir · Coolidge, AZ 85194

$262,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 258 Days on market

Built 2005 8,034 sqft lot $194/sqft · 27% below area Est $360k · 27% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE on this beautifully maintained Northview Estates home! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,354 sq ft of bright, functional living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to vaulted ceilings and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring that create an open, airy feel. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. The split floorplan provides added privacy for the spacious primary suite, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Major upgrade: brand NEW A/C system installed in 2024 for year-round comfort and energy efficiency. Enjoy relaxing evenings under the covered patio and the added space and privacy that come with a corner lot. Complete with a 2-car garage and low-maintenance living, this home is an exceptional value at the new price. Virtually staged photos help showcase the home's full potential.

Key facts

• 8,034 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $262k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,040 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,472
• List price: $262,500
• Delta: -27.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 W Calle Tuberia --	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+3%)	1mo	$372,500	$267	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,652
• Equity at exit: $39,140

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-54,796
• Equity at exit: $22,696

Cash invested: $73,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85194

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,377
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $240,228

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,625
• Closing costs: $7,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
651 W Fairway Cove Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	1d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,500 Active 258 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $262,500 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $262,500 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,500 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,500 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,500 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,500 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $262,500 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $262,500 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,500 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,500 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,500 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,500 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,500 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $262,500 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    NEW PRICE on this beautifully maintained Northview Estates home! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,354 sq ft of bright, functional living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to vaulted ceilings and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring that create an open, airy feel. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. The split floorplan provides added privacy for the spacious primary suite, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Major upgrade: brand NEW A/C system installed in 2024 for year-round comfort and energy efficiency. Enjoy relaxing evenings under the covered patio and the added space and privacy that come with a corner lot. Complete with a 2-car garage and low-maintenance living, this home is an exceptional value at the new price. Virtually staged photos help showcase the home's full potential.

16. 2026-03-18
    price $265,000 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    NEW PRICE on this beautifully maintained Northview Estates home! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,354 sq ft of bright, functional living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to vaulted ceilings and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring that create an open, airy feel. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. The split floorplan provides added privacy for the spacious primary suite, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Major upgrade: brand NEW A/C system installed in 2024 for year-round comfort and energy efficiency. Enjoy relaxing evenings under the covered patio and the added space and privacy that come with a corner lot. Complete with a 2-car garage and low-maintenance living, this home is an exceptional value at the new price. Virtually staged photos help showcase the home's full potential.

17. 2026-01-16
    price $269,000 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    NEW PRICE on this beautifully maintained Northview Estates home! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,354 sq ft of bright, functional living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to vaulted ceilings and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring that create an open, airy feel. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. The split floorplan provides added privacy for the spacious primary suite, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Major upgrade: brand NEW A/C system installed in 2024 for year-round comfort and energy efficiency. Enjoy relaxing evenings under the covered patio and the added space and privacy that come with a corner lot. Complete with a 2-car garage and low-maintenance living, this home is an exceptional value at the new price. Virtually staged photos help showcase the home's full potential.

18. 2025-10-04
    listed $279,000 Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    NEW PRICE on this beautifully maintained Northview Estates home! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,354 sq ft of bright, functional living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to vaulted ceilings and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring that create an open, airy feel. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. The split floorplan provides added privacy for the spacious primary suite, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Major upgrade: brand NEW A/C system installed in 2024 for year-round comfort and energy efficiency. Enjoy relaxing evenings under the covered patio and the added space and privacy that come with a corner lot. Complete with a 2-car garage and low-maintenance living, this home is an exceptional value at the new price. Virtually staged photos help showcase the home's full potential.

19. 2025-05-01
    historical
20. 2025-04-12
    price $284,000
21. 2024-12-17
    price $289,000
22. 2024-10-25
    listed $294,000 Active
23. 2012-04-13
    soldstatus $75,500 Closed
24. 2012-03-14
    status Pending
25. 2012-02-01
    listed $82,500 Active
26. 2005-05-11
    soldstatus $109,840

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,732 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,704
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,636
• Taxable loss: −$6,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $-26/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coolidge Unified District (4442)
• NCES district ID: 0402320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,182
• Composite: 10.35/100
• National rank: #9787
• State rank: #229 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Coolidge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #22344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 19,487
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,077
• Household income: $82,935
• Rent vs Own: 10.1% rent · 89.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 17.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.29%
• Current HPI: 251.5364
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+139.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $262,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $269,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $284,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $289,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $294,000 ARMLS
• 2012-04-13 Sold (MLS) $75,500 ARMLS
• 2012-03-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-02-01 Listed $82,500 ARMLS
• 2005-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $109,840 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +86.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.