20450 Lancaster St

Harper Woods, MI 48225

$164,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$686
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-369/mo
• Annual: $-4,423/yr
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.3% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $148k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Grosse Pointe Public Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #24 of 540 in MI (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 21 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 7.7% in Harper Woods — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.