20450 Lancaster St · Harper Woods, MI 48225

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 6,534 sqft lot $169/sqft · 9% below area Est $181k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming brick home in this nice Harper Woods neighborhood with award winning Grosse Pointe Schools. Natural Hardwood flooring, newer lighting, and agreeable color schemes create a very comfortable living space. This is all complemented by large windows that give plenty of natural light. The open kitchen and living room layout have walk out access to the patio and private backyard which make this home great for enjoying and entertaining. The upstairs primary bedroom is very open/spacious and the two complimentary bedrooms on the main floor have nice functionality. Mechanicals of the home including the furnace, roof, water heater, electric, and plumbing, are all in working order. New Air Conditioner installed in 2026.The basement shows tall ceilings and bright lighting which offers good usability now and potential for future finishing. Front exterior yard has cleared flower beds ready for new plantings. The oversized and private backyard has a cement patio, block firepit, and numerous planting beds, which are all nice to enjoy with the good weather. To top everything off, this home has a 1 car garage, fully fenced in yard, and long driveway. Buyer's agent or buyer(s) to verify all information.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1950
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Public water; 0.15-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 7.7% in Harper Woods — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Grosse Pointe Public Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #24 of 540 in MI (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 21 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,091 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,064
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20672 Fleetwood Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,031 (+5%)	6mo	$115,000	$112	78
20688 Fleetwood Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,053 (+8%)	3mo	$173,000	$164	76
20402 Kenmore Ave	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,055 (+8%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	72
20602 Kenmore Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,055 (+8%)	3mo	$163,850	$155	69
20871 Van Antwerp St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-3%)	3mo	$170,000	$179	67
20450 Lochmoor St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+13%)	8mo	$135,000	$122	66
20842 Ridgemont Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,001 (+2%)	3mo	$85,000	$85	64
20886 Hunt Club Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,044 (+7%)	7mo	$213,300	$204	64
19993 Woodmont St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+9%)	10mo	$188,000	$177	58
21200 Country Club Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,094 (+12%)	9mo	$210,000	$192	50
20846 Hampton St	0.68mi	3/1.0	897 (-8%)	7mo	$139,900	$156	49
2368 Allard Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,111 (+14%)	5mo	$205,000	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-46,695
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-55,949
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48225

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$617 /mo · $7,405/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,963

Max offer price $148,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-275	-5% $-322	+0% $-369	+5% $-415	+10% $-462
Rent	-10% $-487	-5% $-428	+0% $-369	+5% $-310	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-286	-0.5pp $-327	base $-369	+0.5pp $-411	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20015 Lochmoor St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,500	$1.49	17d	1	0.22mi
20600 Balfour St Harper Woods, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,640	$1.69	0d	14	0.44mi
2037 Vernier Rd Grosse Pointe Woods, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	44d	1	0.67mi
2175 Ridgemont Rd Grosse Pointe Woods, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.74mi
1992 Hawthorne Rd Grosse Pointe Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1071	$2,100	$1.96	11d	1	0.81mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	25d	1	1.02mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	18d	1	1.06mi
20461 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,399	$1.27	15d	1	1.07mi
19982 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	866	$1,200	$1.39	4d	1	1.15mi
19203 Edgefield St Harper Woods, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	25d	1	1.16mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	18d	1	1.18mi
19365 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.5	996	$1,650	$1.66	15d	1	1.19mi
19639 Moross Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.23mi
21401 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	2.0	1.0	944	$1,200	$1.27	25d	1	1.27mi
10985 Peerless St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	5d	1	1.31mi
19144 Moross Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.40mi
22126 Alger St Saint Clair Shores, MI	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,750	$1.65	11d	1	1.42mi
10542 Lanark St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,250	$1.22	44d	1	1.45mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	15d	1	1.46mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	44d	1	1.46mi
16410 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	15d	1	1.47mi
16291 Eastburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $164,900 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on marketlisting id $164,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM
8. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 1218-char remark
9. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 922-char remark
10. 2026-05-09
    status Pending
11. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Under Contract 1218-char remark
12. 2026-05-05
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 922-char remark
13. 2026-05-05
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted
14. 2026-04-23
    price $159,900 922-char remark
15. 2026-04-23
    price $159,900 1218-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    price $159,900
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $169,900 Active 1218-char remark
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $169,900 Active 922-char remark
19. 2026-04-13
    listed $169,900 Active
20. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $122,000 Sold
21. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $122,000 Closed
22. 2022-01-19
    status Pending
23. 2022-01-19
    status Pending
24. 2022-01-13
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
25. 2022-01-13
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
26. 2022-01-03
    historical
27. 2022-01-03
    listed $134,900 Active
28. 2022-01-03
    listed $134,900 Active
29. 2022-01-03
    historical
30. 2021-12-30
    status Active
31. 2021-12-30
    status Active
32. 2021-12-15
    status Pending
33. 2021-12-15
    status Pending
34. 2021-12-09
    listed $135,000 Active
35. 2021-12-09
    listed $135,000 Active
36. 2021-07-24
    historical
37. 2021-07-23
    historical
38. 2021-07-16
    historical
39. 2021-07-16
    listed $110,000 Active
40. 2021-07-16
    listed $110,000 Active
41. 2021-07-09
    status Pending
42. 2021-07-09
    status Pending
43. 2021-07-09
    historical
44. 2021-07-01
    listed $135,000 Active
45. 2021-07-01
    listed $135,000 Active
46. 2017-08-11
    soldstatus $68,500
47. 2017-08-07
    soldstatus $68,500 Sold
48. 2017-08-07
    soldstatus $68,500 Closed
49. 2017-07-11
    status Pending
50. 2017-07-11
    status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,405 · $617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,405 · $617/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$7,405
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$7,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grosse Pointe Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625740
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $89,975
• Composite: 56.51/100
• National rank: #1152
• State rank: #24 of 540 in MI

Livability — Harper Woods

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #5054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harper Woods, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 16,098
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 16,098
• Household income: $61,750
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.40%
• Current HPI: 181.4961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+98.7% since first listed

60 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $164,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-12 Listed $164,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $164,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $164,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $164,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $164,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $164,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $164,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $122,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $122,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-01-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-13 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-13 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-03 Listed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-03 Listed $134,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-12-30 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-30 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-12-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-12-09 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-24 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-16 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-01 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-01 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2017-08-07 Sold (MLS) $68,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-08-07 Sold (MLS) $68,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-07-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-07-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-06-22 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-06-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-06-22 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2017-06-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-05 Price Changed $82,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-04 Price Changed $82,600 REALCOMP
• 2017-03-28 Listed $83,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-28 Listed $83,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,405 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.