13017 Winona Dr

Sterling Heights, MI 48312

$257,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,951/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $71,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (22.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in MI, #4,545 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dekeyser Elementary School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #428 of 1,397 statewide, top 31%, 525 students, 48% FRL); Davis Junior High School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D+, #161 of 493 statewide, top 33%, 728 students, 58% FRL); Adlai Stevenson High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #260 of 713 statewide, top 37%, 1,977 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Sterling Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.