104 Levis Dr

Vincentown, NJ 08060

$435,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,232 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,347/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$103
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-787/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-787/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $335k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rancocas Valley Regional High School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #236 of 472 in NJ (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancocas Valley Regional High School (math 29% / reading 49%, grade F, #197 of 399 statewide, top 51%, 1,981 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.