814 County Road 38

Bainbridge, NY 13733

$147,600D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · Built 1860 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax + insurance: −$512
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,464/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.96%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $41,328

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#561 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Bainbridge-Guilford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #418 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenlawn Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 277 students, 52% FRL); Bainbridge-Guilford High School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 362 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $148k implies a 14660% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.