14 Fairway Dr

Lake Success, NY 11020

$1,788,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,849 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,376
• Tax + insurance: −$2,005
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,632
• Net cashflow: $-5,243/mo
• Annual: $-62,922/yr
• Cap rate: 2.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.57%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $500,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-63k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $862k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $777k (56.5% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.57M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $777k (56.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $129k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $117k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#124 in NY, #2,004 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$206k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.