14 Fairway Dr · Lake Success, NY 11020

$1,788,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,849 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1959 0.46 ac lot $628/sqft · 13% below area Est $2056k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 14 Fairview, a beautifully maintained Split level style home offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths with a flexible and thoughtfully designed layout. The exterior features classic brick with vinyl siding, architectural soffits with integrated lighting, a new front door, and a spacious six-car driveway. One-year-old pavers enhance the outdoor spaces, complemented by full front and rear lawn sprinkler systems and a fully fenced yard. Inside, red oak floors run throughout, while the main-level primary suite features marble flooring, built-in shelving, and generous closet space. A second expanded primary suite upstairs includes its own full bath, offering ideal flexibility for guests or extended living. Anderson windows provide abundant natural light, and Hunter Douglas shades add both style and privacy. The home offers multiple living areas, including an additional living great room with sliding glass doors that open directly to the backyard, creating seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a Sub-Zero refrigerator, Wolf gas oven, Bosch dishwasher, granite countertops, and Kohler faucets. Highlights include a new washer and dryer in the basement, a whole-house generator, four-keypad alarm system with glass-break sensors, and an air-conditioned garage. Conveniently located close to the country club and golf course, this home combines comfort, quality craftsmanship, and an exceptional setting. Steps away from Highway access to Manhattan or east end. Location, Location, Location its all here.

Key facts

• Six-car driveway
• One-year-old pavers
• New front door

Tags

• SPLIT LEVEL STYLE HOME
• NEW FRONT DOOR
• SIX-CAR DRIVEWAY
• ONE-YEAR-OLD PAVERS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• RED OAK FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-63k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $862k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $777k (56.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $777k (56.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#124 in NY, #2,004 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $129k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $117k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$206k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.57M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $776,942 (56.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.57%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 19.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,056,172
• List price: $1,788,000
• Delta: -13.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Links Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,702 (-5%)	15mo	$1,688,000	$625	70
16 Fairway Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	3,000 (+5%)	23mo	$1,680,000	$560	69
12 School House Ln	0.35mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,012 (+6%)	12mo	$2,000,000	$664	55
300 Lakeville Rd	0.33mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,000 (+5%)	16mo	$1,240,000	$413	54
21 Hereford Rd	0.66mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,851 (+0%)	11mo	$1,700,000	$596	51
7 Robbins Ln	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,641 (-7%)	5mo	$1,785,000	$676	48
262-55 Grand Central Pkwy	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,600 (-9%)	10mo	$1,360,000	$523	47
10 Briarfield Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,650 (-7%)	8mo	$1,880,000	$709	47
15 Grenfell Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	3,083 (+8%)	6mo	$3,050,000	$989	45
15 Surrey Rd	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,950 (+4%)	10mo	$2,230,000	$756	45
52-50 Little Neck Pkwy	0.65mi	4/1.5	2,502 (-12%)	1mo	$1,198,000	$479	44
54-24 253rd St	0.72mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,160 (+11%)	18mo	$1,900,000	$601	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $237,224
• Equity at exit: $1,182,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $945,401
• Equity at exit: $2,198,110

Cash invested: $500,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11020

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 19.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,376
• Tax from tax record: −$1,260 /mo · $15,118/yr
• Insurance: −$745
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,632
• Net cashflow: $-5,243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,407

Max offer price $861,719

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $447,000
• Closing costs: $53,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Highland Pl Great Neck, NY	5.0	3.0	1949	$6,000	$3.08	1d	1	0.63mi
22 Olive St Great Neck, NY	4.0	3.0	3390	$10,000	$2.95	1d	1	0.89mi
77-18 271st St Unit 2nd floor Queens, NY	3.0	1.0	2184	$3,000	$1.37	21d	1	1.26mi
2 Amherst Rd E Great Neck, NY	4.0	3.5	2607	$7,500	$2.88	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,788,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,788,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,788,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,788,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-02-09
    listed $1,788,000 Active 1580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1580 chars)

    Welcome to 14 Fairview, a beautifully maintained Split level style home offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths with a flexible and thoughtfully designed layout. The exterior features classic brick with vinyl siding, architectural soffits with integrated lighting, a new front door, and a spacious six-car driveway. One-year-old pavers enhance the outdoor spaces, complemented by full front and rear lawn sprinkler systems and a fully fenced yard. Inside, red oak floors run throughout, while the main-level primary suite features marble flooring, built-in shelving, and generous closet space. A second expanded primary suite upstairs includes its own full bath, offering ideal flexibility for guests or extended living. Anderson windows provide abundant natural light, and Hunter Douglas shades add both style and privacy. The home offers multiple living areas, including an additional living great room with sliding glass doors that open directly to the backyard, creating seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a Sub-Zero refrigerator, Wolf gas oven, Bosch dishwasher, granite countertops, and Kohler faucets. Highlights include a new washer and dryer in the basement, a whole-house generator, four-keypad alarm system with glass-break sensors, and an air-conditioned garage. Conveniently located close to the country club and golf course, this home combines comfort, quality craftsmanship, and an exceptional setting. Steps away from Highway access to Manhattan or east end. Location, Location, Location its all here.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,118 · $1,260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,668 · $1,889/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,550/yr (+$629/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,156
• − Property taxes: −$15,118
• − Insurance: −$8,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,459
• − Management: −$7,459
• − Depreciation: −$52,015
• Taxable loss: −$97,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-39,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Neck Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3612510
• Math proficiency: 86% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $99,939
• Composite: 76.19/100
• National rank: #111
• State rank: #30 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Success

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #2004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Success, NY
• City population: 6,218
• Population (ZIP): 5,986

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% White 38% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Chinese 24% Korean 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Current HPI: 320.5214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $1,788,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $15,118 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.