4120 Heather Dr

Harris Hill, NY 14221

$359,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,706/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$527
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-277/mo
• Annual: $-3,320/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $100,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harris Hill Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #188 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 464 students, 21% FRL); Clarence Middle School (math 47% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 729 statewide, top 22%, 972 students, 18% FRL); Clarence Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,284 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $360k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.