4120 Heather Dr · Harris Hill, NY 14221

$359,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1980 0.75 ac lot $268/sqft · 25% above area Est $399k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 full bath raised ranch with attached two car garage on a large lot in beautiful neighborhood with upscale homes. Enjoy watching nature through the sliding glass doors off the kitchen which lead to wooden deck. Lots of natural light pours through the living room front window. Two bedrooms and full bath on upper level and two bedrooms, full bath and small family room on lower level with easy access to garage from lower level. House has been freshly painted. Updates include roof(2008), windows(2002), hwt(2015), furnace (2016), sump pump(2017). Open house Sunday March 18th 1-3pm.

Key facts

• Large picture window
• Updated landscaping
• Sliding doors

Tags

• ENGINEERED HARDWOOD FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SLIDING DOORS
• DECK OVERLOOKING YARD
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• UPDATED LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Security: Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Two-story home; Vinyl siding; Existing/resale condition; City street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Two stories
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Patio; Shed(s) and additional storage; Irrregular residential lot with 122 x 200 dimensions

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (three on first floor, one on second floor); Primary bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished basement with sump pump; Laundry and recreation rooms in basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harris Hill Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #188 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 464 students, 21% FRL); Clarence Middle School (math 47% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 729 statewide, top 22%, 972 students, 18% FRL); Clarence Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,284 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $360k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $270,563 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,007
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -9.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4139 Wildwood Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,278 (-5%)	4mo	$305,000	$239	65
4334 Connection Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,351 (+1%)	11mo	$303,000	$224	65
4255 Roxbury Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,385 (+3%)	11mo	$360,000	$260	64
4343 Cameron Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,397 (+4%)	10mo	$280,000	$200	62
4274 Trailing Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,542 (+15%)	12mo	$355,000	$230	48
4411 Overlook Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,350 (+0%)	20mo	$285,000	$211	48
4286 Shimerville Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	14mo	$262,000	$210	47
4314 Shimerville Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,506 (+12%)	8mo	$270,000	$179	41
4306 Shimerville Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	9mo	$253,000	$220	37
4291 Roxbury Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,160 (-14%)	24mo	$275,000	$237	33
4441 E Overlook Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,524 (+14%)	8mo	$235,000	$154	32
4296 Harris Hill Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	22mo	$235,000	$196	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-70,364
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-60,114
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $311,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-175	+0% $-277	+5% $-379	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-384	+0% $-277	+5% $-170	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-185	base $-277	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4241 Capstone Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,604	$2.33	3d	8	1.09mi
4045 Coventry Green Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,312	$2.26	3d	8	1.18mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $359,900 970-char remark
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $369,900 Active 970-char remark
3. 2018-06-04
   soldstatus $195,000 Closed Sale or Rented 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 full bath raised ranch with attached two car garage on a large lot in beautiful neighborhood with upscale homes. Enjoy watching nature through the sliding glass doors off the kitchen which lead to wooden deck. Lots of natural light pours through the living room front window. Two bedrooms and full bath on upper level and two bedrooms, full bath and small family room on lower level with easy access to garage from lower level. House has been freshly painted. Updates include roof(2008), windows(2002), hwt(2015), furnace (2016), sump pump(2017). Open house Sunday March 18th 1-3pm.

4. 2018-05-30
   soldstatus $195,000
5. 2018-03-23
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 full bath raised ranch with attached two car garage on a large lot in beautiful neighborhood with upscale homes. Enjoy watching nature through the sliding glass doors off the kitchen which lead to wooden deck. Lots of natural light pours through the living room front window. Two bedrooms and full bath on upper level and two bedrooms, full bath and small family room on lower level with easy access to garage from lower level. House has been freshly painted. Updates include roof(2008), windows(2002), hwt(2015), furnace (2016), sump pump(2017). Open house Sunday March 18th 1-3pm.

6. 2018-03-16
   listed $165,800 Active 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 full bath raised ranch with attached two car garage on a large lot in beautiful neighborhood with upscale homes. Enjoy watching nature through the sliding glass doors off the kitchen which lead to wooden deck. Lots of natural light pours through the living room front window. Two bedrooms and full bath on upper level and two bedrooms, full bath and small family room on lower level with easy access to garage from lower level. House has been freshly painted. Updates include roof(2008), windows(2002), hwt(2015), furnace (2016), sump pump(2017). Open house Sunday March 18th 1-3pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,522 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,302 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$780/yr (+$65/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,597
• − Management: −$2,597
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$9,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,323
• After-tax cash flow: $-997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harris Hill, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+117.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $359,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $369,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-04 Sold (MLS) $195,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-16 Listed $165,800 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,522 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.