6996 Bent Creek Dr

Germantown, TN 38138

$339,000C

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,528 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $332/mo
• Annual: $3,986/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (2.7% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $330k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown (suburban): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #4 of 139 in TN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Houston Middle School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade C-, #21 of 333 statewide, top 6%, 897 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 6% / reading 61%, grade F, #52 of 332 statewide, top 16%, 1,938 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Germantown average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,020 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (1,041 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $339k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.