6996 Bent Creek Dr · Germantown, TN 38138

$339,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $417k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL! BELOW APPRAISAL! MUCH BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS! FRESH NEUTRAL DECOR & CARPET. SEP LR/DR/DEN. BRIGHT REMODELED KITCHEN W/ TILE FLOOR & WHITE CABINETS. HIS & HER MASTER BATHS. LARGE WALK-IN ATTIC. STORM WINDOWS/DOORS.

Key facts

• Outside storage
• Carport
• Gas stove

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS STOVE
• WALK-IN ATTIC
• CARPORT
• OUTSIDE STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1974
• Construction: 1974 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Poplar Estates subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown (suburban): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #4 of 139 in TN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Houston Middle School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade C-, #21 of 333 statewide, top 6%, 897 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 6% / reading 61%, grade F, #52 of 332 statewide, top 16%, 1,938 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Germantown average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,020 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (1,041 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $339k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,678 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,120
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1217 Saddle Ridge Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,323 (-8%)	2mo	$425,000	$183	69
7038 Huntcliff Cv	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,739 (+8%)	4mo	$299,000	$109	68
6971 Stillbrook Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,223 (-12%)	9mo	$383,000	$172	61
1514 Holly Hill Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,438 (-4%)	14mo	$449,000	$184	57
1623 Holly Hill Cv	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,578 (+2%)	4mo	$425,000	$165	55
1497 Poplar Estates Pkwy	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,185 (-14%)	0mo	$414,900	$190	50
1562 Holly Hill Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,419 (-4%)	15mo	$370,000	$153	49
7008 Corsica Rd	0.13mi	5/2.5	2,889 (+14%)	23mo	$380,000	$132	49
1604 Riverdale Rd	0.71mi	5/3.0	2,783 (+10%)	8mo	$460,000	$165	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-29,775
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $18,133
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38138

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,239/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,876

Max offer price $339,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $428	+0% $332	+5% $236	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $202	+0% $332	+5% $462	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $418	base $332	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7008 Corsica Dr Germantown, TN	5.0	2.5	2889	$3,000	$1.04	45d	1	0.14mi
6934 Wynterhall Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	2211	$2,900	$1.31	4d	1	0.25mi
1703 Bryn Mawr Cv Germantown, TN	4.0	3.5	2896	$2,875	$0.99	25d	1	0.80mi
7472 Dove Field Cv Germantown, TN	5.0	2.5	2815	$3,250	$1.15	4d	1	0.92mi
1676 Miller Farms Rd Germantown, TN	4.0	3.0	2274	$3,650	$1.61	21d	1	1.22mi
1741 Magnolia Tree Rd Germantown, TN	4.0	2.5	2791	$2,950	$1.06	45d	1	1.25mi
7650 Charstone Dr Germantown, TN	4.0	3.0	2774	$2,456	$0.89	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $339,000 Active
3. 2002-07-12
   soldstatus $170,000
4. 2002-06-21
   soldstatus $170,000 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL! BELOW APPRAISAL! MUCH BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS! FRESH NEUTRAL DECOR & CARPET. SEP LR/DR/DEN. BRIGHT REMODELED KITCHEN W/ TILE FLOOR & WHITE CABINETS. HIS & HER MASTER BATHS. LARGE WALK-IN ATTIC. STORM WINDOWS/DOORS.

5. 2002-05-27
   historical 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL! BELOW APPRAISAL! MUCH BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS! FRESH NEUTRAL DECOR & CARPET. SEP LR/DR/DEN. BRIGHT REMODELED KITCHEN W/ TILE FLOOR & WHITE CABINETS. HIS & HER MASTER BATHS. LARGE WALK-IN ATTIC. STORM WINDOWS/DOORS.

6. 2001-10-24
   listed $171,900 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL! BELOW APPRAISAL! MUCH BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS! FRESH NEUTRAL DECOR & CARPET. SEP LR/DR/DEN. BRIGHT REMODELED KITCHEN W/ TILE FLOOR & WHITE CABINETS. HIS & HER MASTER BATHS. LARGE WALK-IN ATTIC. STORM WINDOWS/DOORS.

7. 1975-03-14
   soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,239 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,239 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$4,239
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,165
• − Management: −$3,165
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$1,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $4,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown
• NCES district ID: 4700151
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,101
• Composite: 49.28/100
• National rank: #2026
• State rank: #4 of 139 in TN

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, TN
• County: Shelby County · 895,435 people
• City population: 25,167
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 25,167
• Household income: $136,297
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 952,522 people
• By 2030: 952,970 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 945,842 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 928,211 · -2.6%
• By 2075: 877,898 · -7.8%
• By 2100: 794,112 · -16.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Asian 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.4) · D 61.8% · R 36.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 25.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.4 2020: D+30.4 2016: D+27.6 2012: D+26.1 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.64%
• Current HPI: 208.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+539.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $339,000 FSBO.com
• 2002-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-21 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2002-05-27 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2001-10-24 Listed $171,900 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 1975-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,239 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.