815 Mallorys Ford Rd

Blue Ridge Shores, VA 23093

$265,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,125/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#501 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Trevilians Elementary (math 45% / reading 69%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 536 students, 80% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Blue Ridge Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.