815 Mallorys Ford Rd · Blue Ridge Shores, VA 23093

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2018 1.50 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2018, set on 1.5 private acres in Louisa County! Enjoy easy one-level living with a bright, open layout designed for everyday comfort. The spacious lot offers endless possibilities—whether you’re looking to garden, expand, or simply enjoy the peace and privacy of country living. Tucked away in a quiet setting while still convenient to nearby amenities, this property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and value. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a newer home on over an acre!

Key facts

• Private acres
• Country living
• Nearby amenities

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUIET SETTING
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Blue Ridge Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#501 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Trevilians Elementary (math 45% / reading 69%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 536 students, 80% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,989 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-49,018
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-50,805
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23093

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $248,442

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$849/yr (+$71/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Blue Ridge Shores

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #22206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,243

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.32%
• Current HPI: 217.8884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+32.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,324 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.